Cairns trip, June 2009

Between the 1st and 7th June 2009, I was lucky enough to travel to Cairns and the surrounding areas for a bird-watching trip. I travelled with two friends from Perth; Ryan Phillips and Myles Menz (the last of whom I actually met on the trip). We hired a 4-berth campervan called “The Warrior”, that was surprisingly roomy and comfortable to drive. HOWEVER, living in very close proximity with two other males is a challenge at the best of times, little alone when one of them leaves random underwear strewn around the van!

That aside, it was a fantastic trip with an amazing 175 species of birds, including all of the Atherton Tableland endemics. Of the 175 species, 51 of them were new for me; including 3 new species of robins; Grey-headed Robin, Lemon-bellied Flycatcher and Mangrove Robin! The particular highlights of the trip, apart from the robins, included seeing many of the north-Queensland endemics such as the Southern Cassowary, Golden Bowerbird and Fernwren. The Golden Bowerbird took quite some effort to see, and involved us walking 8km up the Mt Lewis road. Although we didn’t see any spectacularly coloured males, we saw 6 – 7 females! The following is a list of all the species I saw on the trip, and particular notes on particular species of note or interest! New species for me are also shown! Please also see the new Cairns birdwatching holiday photo album on the right panel.

Pacific Black Duck
Eastern Reef Egret
Cattle Egret
Great Egret
Australian White Ibis
Straw-necked Ibis
Royal Spoonbill
Ruddy Turnstone
Bar-tailed Godwit
Red-necked Stint
Masked Lapwing
Red-capped Plover
Black-fronted Dotterel
Silver Gull
Laughing Gull – NEW – rare vagrant to Australia, although there was a juvenile sitting out on the Esplanade amongst Silver Gulls.
Gull-billed Tern
Pacific Baza – saw 3 of them together calling raucously around Mareeba Wetlands.
White-bellied Sea Eagle
Australian Kestrel
Black Kite
Topknot Pigeon – huge numbers of them circling around Malanda Falls.
Brown Cuckoo-dove
Peaceful Dove
Bar-shouldered Dove
Spotted Turtle-dove
Crested Pigeon
White-headed Pigeon
Emerald Dove – NEW – What an amazing coloured little dove this is…. lovely.
Double-eyed Fig Parrot – NEW – managed to glimpse a couple on the Daintree River cruise, actually excavating a nest hollow. Apparently, this is one of only 2 – 3 species in Australia that excavate nest hollows from scratch!?
Scaly-breasted Lorikeet
Rainbow Lorikeet
Australian Swiftlet – NEW
Laughing Kookaburra
Collared Kingfisher
Forest Kingfisher
Rainbow Bee-eater
White-throated Treecreeper – saw this up with our tour guide ‘Chook’ at Mareeba Wetlands. The subspecies of the treecreeper up here (subspecies minor) looks totally different from the southern sub-species; being much smaller and darker.
Red-backed Fairy-wren
Striated Pardalote
Large-billed Scrubwren
Brown Gerygone
Lewin's Honeyeater
White-throated Honeyeater
Brown Honeyeater
Scarlet Honeyeater
Dusky Honeyeater – NEW – common around the gardens of Lake Barrine
Eastern Whipbird
Pale-yellow Robin
Grey headed Robin – NEW – saw in a number of rainforest locations on the Atherton Tableland. A big species of robin this one!!
Golden Whistler
Willie Wagtail
Yellow-breasted Boatbill – NEW – Very cute little species; surprisingly colourful little fella
Pied Monarch – NEW – I’ve wanted to see these species for a long time!
Magpie Lark
Spangled Drongo
Australasian Figbird
Victoria's Riflebird – NEW – Saw a male and many females in the carpark of Lake Barrine – too easy!!
Green Catbird – Although this is not a new species for me, the Green Catbird up this way is a distinct subspecies (race actually) known commonly as the Spotted Catbird. It is distinctly different from the southern populations of Green Catbird, and probably deserves to be a separate species.
Toothbill Bowerbird - NEW
Black-faced Cuckoo-shrike
White-breasted Woodswallow – sexiest of the woodswallows!
House Sparrow
Red-browed Firetail
Yellow-bellied Sunbird
Common Myna
Little Black Cormorant
Australasian Grebe
Orange-footed Scrubfowl – NEW – walking around the Malanda Caravan Park grounds that we were staying in!
Magpie Goose – NEW – saw them previously however in Stephen Davies’ backyard in Mt Helena in Perth, although obviously, these were a captive population!
Plumed Whistling Duck – NEW – Hundreds of them in Hasting’s Swamp, along with Magpie Geese!!
Hardhead
Intermediate Egret – NEW – First confirmed identification of these for me, usually just assume Great Egret!
Sarus Crane – NEW - Awesome flight display on the Tablelands near Upper Barron.
Black-shouldered Kite
Whistling Kite
Brown Goshawk
Spotted Harrier – NEW – First look at this species at it hovered low over the Tablelands!
Australian King Parrot
Sulphur-crested Cockatoo
Fan-tailed Cuckoo
Yellow-throated Scrubwren
Mountain Thornbill – NEW – One of the North-Queensland rainforest endemics
Welcome Swallow
White-cheeked Honeyeater
Eastern Yellow Robin
Little Shrike-thrush – NEW – Hard to tell from the Bower’s Shrike-thrush, although slightly smaller, and different face colour.
Grey Fantail
Spectacled Monarch – NEW – FINALLY seen one of these, even though they are found down near Brisbane!
Satin Bowerbird
Pied Butcherbird
Australian Magpie
Pied Currawong
Torresian Crow
Tree Martin
Chestnut-breasted Mannikin
Silvereye
Mistletoebird
Little Pied Cormorant
Wandering Whistling-duck
Grey Teal
Wood Duck
Dusky Moorhen
Eurasian Coot
Grey Goshawk
White-throated Gerygone
Helmeted Friarbird – NEW – This really is an ugly species
Macleay's Honyeater – NEW – What a stunningly beautifully coloured bird; seen at Lake Eacham feeding on the Umbrella Palms.
Yellow-spotted Honeyeater – NEW – rather hard to identify sometimes from Lewin’s Honeyeater, although the former is slightly smaller and has a darker face
Bridled Honeyeater – NEW
Yellow Honeyeater
Eastern Spinebill
Chowchilla – NEW – Saw along the road into Mt Hypipamee Crater; needless to say, you need to be patient and very still to see them. Also saw them up Mt Lewis, and this most likely represents a unique subspecies.
Bower's Shrike-thrush – NEW – Another highly restricted North-Queensland Rainforest endemic
Barred Cuckoo-shrike – NEW – Seen in the main street of Yungaburra; spectacularly bright yellow eye!!
Australasian Pipit
Golden-headed Cisticola – NEW – Finally seen this species in all it’s glory now; no fleeting glimpse, but a prolonged look!
Pheasant Coucal
Emu
Darter
Pied Cormorant
Black Swan
Green Pygmy Goose – NEW – At Mareeba Wetlands
Black-necked Stork
Comb-crested Jacana – NEW – At Mareeba Wetlands
Brown Falcon
Rock Dove
Wompoo Fruit-dove – NEW – Saw this species down on the ground at Julatten Birdwatchers Lodge, so an awesome look at this very colourful dove
Squatter Pigeon – NEW – At Mareeba Wetlands
Red-tailed Black Cockatoo
Shining Bronze-cuckoo
Azure Kingfisher – zipping along the watercourse at Julatten
Red-backed Kingfisher
Brown Treecreeper
Weebill
Noisy Friarbird
Blue-faced Honeyeater
Graceful Honeyeater – NEW – On the road up Mt Lewis
White-naped Honeyeater
Grey-crowned Babbler
Lemon-bellied Flycatcher – NEW – Totally unexpected species on this trip. Seen in the woodlands at Mareeba Wetlands. For those not in the know, this is actually a species of Australian robin, so needless to say, I was rather excited.
Rufous Fantail
Leaden Flycatcher
Great Bowerbird
White-bellied Cuckoo-shrike - NEW
Varied Triller – NEW
Fairy Martin
Rufous Songlark
Clamorous Reed Warbler
Double-barred Finch
Common Starling
Chestnut-breasted Cuckoo – NEW
Lesser Sooty Owl – Although this was a new species for me, I haven’t officially listed it, as we only saw one flying through the campground in Julatten
Masked Owl – NEW – FANTASTIC views of two emerging from hollows at Julatten. We were guaranteed views by the caretakers, and they didn’t disappoint!
Papuan Frogmouth – NEW – Great views in Julatten and again on the Daintree River.
Blue-winged Kookaburra
Fernwren – NEW – Fleeting glimpse of them along the Mt Lewis track
Bush Stone-curlew
Atherton Scrubwren – NEW – needless to say, an Atherton Tableland endemic
Fairy Gerygone – NEW – seen along the Daintree River shoreline
Yellow-faced Honeyeater
Grey Whistler – NEW – another seen along the Daintree River shoreline
Golden Bowerbird – NEW – this was probably the highlight of the trip. We saw 6-7 females in all, 8km up the Mt Lewis track, that we travelled on foot! VERY geographically restricted species that is one of the most threatened by climate change due to it being found only in tropical rainforest above 900m altitude.
Rufous Night Heron
Sacred Kingfisher
Large-billed Gerygone – NEW – Found along the Daintree River shoreline
Rufous Whistler
Shining Flycatcher – NEW – Stunning slate colour, seen along Daintree River
Yellow Oriole – NEW – another species found on the Daintree
Metallic Starling – NEW – very unexpected species that we didn’t expect this time of the year; they were most likely juveniles that didn’t migrate north
Southern Cassowary – NEW – iconic species that we were lucky to see up near Cape Tribulation crossing the road with two young!
Beach Stone-curlew – NEW – found, funnily enough, on the beach
Crested Tern
Lovely Fairy-wren – NEW – rather large fairy-wren seen on the drive out of the Cape Tribulation campground
Mangrove Robin – NEW – final species of the trip seen on the Mangrove walk near the Cairns Airport!! Been wanting to see these for years… great new species, being a robin and all!!
Black Butcherbird

Watch this space...

Just a quick note to let those who view my page know, that in the next week, I will update you all on my goings-on...... a LOT has happened since my last post, including the Cairns trip (amazing!), winter fieldwork (including a new species for Toohey Forest), the 10th International Congress of Ecology (that I presented at) and the continued trials and tribulations of work... I will update shortly... Needless to say, Rebecca and I are both well, and looking forward to our trip to Perth next Saturday for a well-earned break!

Away to Cairns

Well, now that my Birds Australia Conservation Forum talk is over (I will post link to the actual powerpoint presentation soon in case anybody wishes to read it; the day was a fantastic success and not only did I got some real positive feedback, but my findings could well be incorporated into management in the future), I am now looking forward to a trip to Cairns tomorrow morning with my close friend Ryan Phillips, and his mate Myles Menz, whom I am looking forward to meeting. We are heading up to Cairns for a week of solid birdwatching througohut the Cairns region including visiting everywhere from the Atherton Tablelands in the south to Cape Tribulation to the north. Now, in terms of species, there are a GREAT number of amazing species in this region that I am looking forward to seeing. One of the highlights would be the Golden Bowerbird, which we are hoping to spot in the high altitude forests of the Tablelands. However, there are so many other species to look forward to; some common and some rare. Macleays Honeyeaters are just stunning, and although probably common, will be a highlight. There there is the Blue-faced Parrot-finch, which could be a bit harder to spot, but will be a highlight also. HEY, who am I kidding, ALL species will be a highlight from the small Mountain Thornbill to the Southern Cassowary. I will give a detailed report once I return, with heaps of pictures and stories!!

Lamington National Park

Mark and Richelle came up from Armidale a couple of weeks ago, so we went out to dinner at the fabulous Thai Orchid Restaurant in Mt Gravatt on the Friday night and then went on a trip to Lamington National Park on the Saturday. Needless to say, before you all make jokes about the name (I've heard them all), no, there were no lamingtons, or talk of lamingtons, or gimmicky lamington related items in the gift store...

Lamington National Park is on the border between QLD and NSW, and given that it is high in the ranges, has an interesting mix of temperate, sub-tropical and cool temperate rainforest. It is home to some of the more uncommon species in Australia; highlights of which would have to be the Albert's Lyrebird and Eastern Bristlebird... neither of which we saw on the day. The most numerous species we saw on the day would have been the Yellow-throated Scrubwren, Logrunner (big surprise to see so many) and Green Catbird. The Catbird is so-called because of it's amazing call, that sounds very much (as you can guess from the name) like a cat. In the cafe, we saw some real pretty close-ups of a Crimson Rosella (shown below) that walked right in front of Rebecca on the table, and stole one of my chips! Not exactly the most typical 'chip-fiend' you would imagine, but much prettier than a Silver Gull (or Seagull for those used to the vernacular). The Logrunner is a lovely little birds that you hear scratching in the undergrowth before you actually see it! They scratch away the leaf litter layer with their relatively big feet, and eat grubs that attempt to escape back into the undergrowth. Often, while feeding, they give what I can only describe as a faint mumbling call, that I believe works in keeping in contact with their mate, who is rarely feeding more than 2-3m away! Real cute!! Unfortunately, although we had a fantastic time walking and seeing amazing sites, the O'Reillys section of the park that we were in has become a corporate retreat for the rich; way too many 5-star accommodation bungalows that takes away from the magic of the surrounding forest. Nothing like the magic of driving into somewhere like New England National Park in NSW or Fitzgerald National Park in the SE of WA where there is hardly anything around to distract from the true beauty of just nature! Next time I go to Lamington, I might try out the Binnu Burru region of the park... apparently very different and not so developed...

A guide to our house!

I've been meaning to post pictures of our house for ages, so given that today was such an awesome day, I went out and took pictures of the estate complex and our townhouse unit. Rather than having a caption for all pics, I thought the pics would speak for themselves. Needless to say, we are so incredibly happy here! The forest block next to our place is rife with birds and other strange noises at night. So beautiful to look out our loungeroom window at the forest!! I have also made a 2-minute video of our house starting from outside the unit and guiding you through the whole place! You can download/view it here. Enjoy the pics, and feel free to stay!!

Veggie garden

Well, I think the time has come for a quick vegie garden update. Since my last post on the matter, I spent much of my time with my hands in the air not knowing what to do with the very poor growth rates. Then, in addition to a solution of liquid seaweed extract (which stinks like poop) I thought I would give old-mate Blood-n-Bone a go… As a result, the growth went VERY QUICKLY from this (on the 28th February)...

to this… (taken today; 7th April). The change was incredibly rapid; within about 72 hours of feeding with blood-n-bone, the plants were growing CRAZY, and now they are crankin’!

We have been harvesting basil pretty much since day 1, and only harvested our first capsicum 2 days ago to have (with the freshly picked basil) on home-made pizzas!

The zucchini that you can see on the following pics is to be harvested and eaten tonight!! The tomatoes, are showing mixed results; there are a number of fruit, although they are yet to turn red. Also, about a week ago, all the extremities of all the leaves went yellow and died. This happened to coincide with a fresh application of blood-n-bone, so maybe I became a bit over-anxious with fertilising. The capsicums have shown no ill-effects from it however, and are THRIVING! There are at least 4 almost ready to be picked, and MANY more pea-sized ones on the way! The zucchini were struck with powdery mildew a number of weeks ago, although a 1:9 part solution of milk to water sprayed on the leaves helped initially, although they were also afflicted with the yellowing and dead edges shown by the tomatoes. At the time of treating the mildew, I also turned them to face more of the setting sun to avoid the damp conditions that readily afflict marrow (zucchini, pumpkin, cucumber, watermelon etc) plants. The spring onions are really disappointing (didn’t even bother to take close-up). They have hardly grown, and I don’t know if they require more water, less water, more liquid fertiliser, less liquid fertiliser. Although, it appears that all the rain that we have received in the last week or so has dramatically helped the spring onions and growth of all the other plants (see especially the tops of the tomato plants).

I hope to add a number of other pots to the range shown here in the next few months. It is fantastic weather in Brisbane to grow veggies all year round. We may be getting some strawberry plants over the easter break from Rebecca’s parents, so we’ll see. Otherwise, I would love to grow cucumber, smaller tomatoes and even flowering plants like Sweet Peas, which look and smell fantastic on a trellis….. all depends on room and time… this gardening caper is fun, easy and relaxing, and saves money in the long run too!!

Fun with aerial photography

Work has just been crazy and non-stop, a lot of it involving aerial photography ‘orthorectifying’. What that basically means is that I have a set of aerial photos that I am ‘stitching’ to an existing, known co-ordinate framework. This process is undertaken in a program called ArcMap, which is a GIS (Geographic Information System) style program.

Brisbane City Council have provided me with aerial photography for their entire council area. Not only is this a huge area (Brisbane City Council is the largest metropolitan council in Australia), but the resolution of the imagery is 15cm! This means that each pixel is 15cm x 15cm, allowing a detailed assessment of habitat at an amazing resolution! See this example image that is of our new place, which is the !

There are three main ways that aerial photography is provided; all of which vary in their degree of work required to produce a final photo array and all of which vary in their eventual accuracy.

1) A third of all photos are already orthorectified when I receive them; Brisbane City Council’s photos (thankfully) fall into this category. What this means is that I open them, and they fit nicely onto a map with their spatial co-ordinates accurately presented.

2) Then, almost two thirds of aerial photos are static images that I have to stitch to the framework myself, although luckily this sort of photo has an additional ‘tab’ file that states what the SW, NW, NE and SE co-ordinates of the photo are. You then instruct the program to move the corners of the photos to the given spatial co-ordinates. This is still a very time-consuming exercise, and the other day, I spent over 6 days (including a lot of weekend time) performing this exercise on 380 photos for the entire 1996 Gold Coast Council area…

3) The third way that aerial photography is provided is literally static images with no reference to where they belong. With these photos, you basically have to match a given image feature (i.e., road intersection, driveway-road intersection, building corner) with a known spatial co-ordinate. So for example, if I have an aerial photo of my neighbourhood, and I know (using my GPS unit) that the corner of my street is 27.607° S, 153.074° E, I designate that ‘control point’ on the aerial photo, as that known spatial co-ordinate. The more control points that you do this with, the more accurate your image will reflect reality. This process of ‘orthorectifying’ is also known as ‘rubber-sheeting’ once you have enough matching points on the photo. Through a process called ‘1st order polynomial’ and ‘2nd order polynomial’ transformations, parts of the aerial photo are effectively stretched and contracted to best match their true spatial location; thus the term ‘rubber-sheeting’. The image on the right shows what I mean, and comes from the ArcGIS help webpage. THIS method of orthorectifying is the most time consuming and inaccurate method, as the manipulation of the photo based on your control points is like laying a sheet over the ground and while you may be able to relatively accurately anchor parts of that sheet to the ground (control points), those parts of the sheet between the points are not necessarily where they should be. In the end, you can reduce the ‘error’ between the aerial photo and where you say those control points should be by just increasing the number of control points....... all depends on how accurate you need the data to be…

I have pasted below an interesting collection of photos from the Manly region of Brisbane. It shows a 2007 image (provided as a pre-orthorectified, according to the type 1 process as described above) image) of the region, and then a 1991 image (orthorectifying myself according to the type 3 process as described above), and finally a 1958 image that I managed to get my hands on and self orthorectify. It shows nicely the increase cover of development and reduced cover of native vegetation over 50 or so years! If you save them all and view them as a slideshow, you can see how you can accurately stitch photos on top of each other!

Interesting new rainfall model...

I came across a fascinating article published on http://www.weatherzone.com.au/. It outlines a talk to be presented at the Greenhouse 2009 conference, and later, published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal. It represents a model that can predict rainfall and associated risk of bushfires, especially in Victoria, based on the oceanic temperature difference between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean! By all appearances, it looks like the model fits rainfall data somewhat better than the traditional El Nino/La Nina system, although it invariably interacts with it in the global oceanic ciculation model. It is pasted below.

A weather pattern centred on the Indian Ocean may provide an early warning system for major bushfires in southern Australia, climate experts say. Dr Wenju Cai and Tim Cowan, of CSIRO's marine and atmospheric research centre, have uncovered a link between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Victoria's killer bushfires. Dr Cai will tell the Greenhouse 2009 conference today that 11 of 16 major bushfires in Victoria since 1950 have been preceded by what is known as a positive IOD event. He says an unprecedented three consecutive positive IOD events preceded February's devastating Black Saturday bushfires. The IOD refers to temperature fluctuations in the east and western Indian Ocean.


The picture of the left demonstrates change in the sea surface temperature between the western and eastern Indian Oceans (between month 0 and 12) which is apparently a very strong predictor for rainfall and potential bushfire threat patterns in Australia.

In its negative phase, the IOD brings cool water to the ocean west of Australia and warm water to the north, leading to winds that bring rain-bearing air over the continent. In the positive phase, water temperatures are reversed and less rainfall travels to Australia, particularly to Victoria where the negative IOD provides winter and spring rains. As part of their research, Dr Cai and Mr Cowan recorded changes in the IOD using Argo floats; robotic devices that measure the sub-surface ocean temperature.

They found the IOD was in an "unprecedented" positive state for three consecutive years leading up to 2009. They say this preconditioned the environment to the extent that it was almost inevitable the bushfires, which claimed more than 200 lives, would occur. "If you look at the accumulative soil moisture in Victoria, it's unprecedented, it's never been so dry," Dr Cai said.

The researchers also found an IOD link to the Ash Wednesday bushfires of February 1983, with a positive event reducing rainfall during the winter of 1982. Mr Cowan says of the 11 bushfires preceded by a positive IOD, six were coupled with an El Nino event. But, there was only one occasion where an El Nino alone preceded a bushfire, compared to the five times when only an IOD impacted on the rainfall. This shows the influence of the IOD was enough to precondition the environment to high bushfire risk, says Mr Cowan.

Dr Cai and Mr Cowan say climate change projections show the frequency of positive IOD events will increase in the future. "Almost all climate models say under climate change we are going to have an Indian Ocean warming pattern," Dr Cai said. "That means it has to be manifested in either more frequent positive IOD events or higher intensity positive IODs."

According to Dr Cai, the effects of climate change can already be seen. Between 1900 and 1930 there were four positive IOD events, he says. But in the past 30 years there have been 12 positive IODs, a 400 per cent increase. For Victorian residents living in bushfire-prone areas that is bad news. Dr Cai says the continued suppression of rainfall in Victoria will only make conditions more fire friendly. "The implication [of the research] is if we have a positive IOD in one year then the following season you have a higher bushfire risk," he said. According to Dr Cai this knowledge could provide an early warning system. "It gives us four to five months' lead time [to prepare for bushfires]," he said.

He says modelling shows that climate change will also lead to a 30 per cent increase in the number of consecutive events, while the odds of three consecutive IODs occurring increases by 300 per cent. "In 1,000 virtual years without climate change we get two occurrences [of three consecutive positive IOD events]. With climate change factored into the modelling this becomes eight."

The research is due to be published in a series of papers in the Geophysical Research Letters.

The synergistic environmental/economic crisis.

Haven't posted for a while, but I received an interesting email from a subscribed post-doc fellows email list here at Griffith Uni. It is an opinion piece by Thomas Friedman from the March 7th opinion pages of the New York Times. Thomas is a regular columnist with the New York Times and a Pulitzer Prize winning author. This article outlines the economical and ecological unsustainable outcome of the ubiquitous 'growth model' that we hear the politicians and business sectors so vehemently following. A great short article on what is so bleedingly obvious; consumerism and corporate greed spells synergistic environmental and economic collapse!

The Inflection Is Near?

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published in The New York Times, March 7, 2009

Sometimes the satirical newspaper The Onion is so right on, I can’t resist quoting from it. Consider this faux article from June 2005 about America’s addiction to Chinese exports:

FENGHUA, China — Chen Hsien, an employee of Fenghua Ningbo Plastic Works Ltd., a plastics factory that manufactures lightweight household items for Western markets, expressed his disbelief Monday over the “sheer amount of [garbage] Americans will buy. Often, when we’re assigned a new order for, say, ‘salad shooters,’ I will say to myself, ‘There’s no way that anyone will ever buy these.’ ... One month later, we will receive an order for the same product, but three times the quantity. How can anyone have a need for such useless [garbage]? I hear that Americans can buy anything they want, and I believe it, judging from the things I’ve made for them,” Chen said. “And I also hear that, when they no longer want an item, they simply throw it away. So wasteful and contemptible.”

Let’s today step out of the normal boundaries of analysis of our economic crisis and ask a radical question: What if the crisis of 2008 represents something much more fundamental than a deep recession? What if it’s telling us that the whole growth model we created over the last 50 years is simply unsustainable economically and ecologically and that 2008 was when we hit the wall — when Mother Nature and the market both said: “No more.”

We have created a system for growth that depended on our building more and more stores to sell more and more stuff made in more and more factories in China, powered by more and more coal that would cause more and more climate change but earn China more and more dollars to buy more and more U.S. T-bills so America would have more and more money to build more and more stores and sell more and more stuff that would employ more and more Chinese ...

We can’t do this anymore.

“We created a way of raising standards of living that we can’t possibly pass on to our children,” said Joe Romm, a physicist and climate expert who writes the indispensable blog climateprogress.org. We have been getting rich by depleting all our natural stocks — water, hydrocarbons, forests, rivers, fish and arable land — and not by generating renewable flows.

“You can get this burst of wealth that we have created from this rapacious behavior,” added Romm. “But it has to collapse, unless adults stand up and say, ‘This is a Ponzi scheme. We have not generated real wealth, and we are destroying a livable climate ...’ Real wealth is something you can pass on in a way that others can enjoy.”

Over a billion people today suffer from water scarcity; deforestation in the tropics destroys an area the size of Greece every year — more than 25 million acres; more than half of the world’s fisheries are over-fished or fished at their limit.

“Just as a few lonely economists warned us we were living beyond our financial means and overdrawing our financial assets, scientists are warning us that we’re living beyond our ecological means and overdrawing our natural assets,” argues Glenn Prickett, senior vice president at Conservation International. But, he cautioned, as environmentalists have pointed out: “Mother Nature doesn’t do bailouts.”

One of those who has been warning me of this for a long time is Paul Gilding, the Australian environmental business expert. He has a name for this moment — when both Mother Nature and Father Greed have hit the wall at once — “The Great Disruption.”

“We are taking a system operating past its capacity and driving it faster and harder,” he wrote me. “No matter how wonderful the system is, the laws of physics and biology still apply.” We must have growth, but we must grow in a different way. For starters, economies need to transition to the concept of net-zero, whereby buildings, cars, factories and homes are designed not only to generate as much energy as they use but to be infinitely recyclable in as many parts as possible. Let’s grow by creating flows rather than plundering more stocks.

Gilding says he’s actually an optimist. So am I. People are already using this economic slowdown to retool and reorient economies. Germany, Britain, China and the U.S. have all used stimulus bills to make huge new investments in clean power. South Korea’s new national paradigm for development is called: “Low carbon, green growth.” Who knew? People are realizing we need more than incremental changes — and we’re seeing the first stirrings of growth in smarter, more efficient, more responsible ways.

In the meantime, says Gilding, take notes: “When we look back, 2008 will be a momentous year in human history. Our children and grandchildren will ask us, ‘What was it like? What were you doing when it started to fall apart? What did you think? What did you do?’ ” Often in the middle of something momentous, we can’t see its significance. But for me there is no doubt: 2008 will be the marker — the year when ‘The Great Disruption’ began.

Photos of Sydney Uni taken in Dec '08

In December, Rebecca and I went to Sydney for the Ecological Society of Australia conference that I was presenting at. I presented a poster entitled "How dynamic are forest and suburban bird communities?" which represents a very small part of my work here at Griffith University. Feel free to download a PDF copy of the poster by clicking here. The conference was held at Sydney University, a place of amazing history and architecture. I recently downloaded the photos from the camera and decided I would finally take the time to post some of the photos I took of the Quadrangle Building. You can link to them here on on the right in the Picture Albums section.

Climate change analogy

Yesterday, I was listening to an ABC Science Show podcast initially aired on Saturday 31st January 2009 and heard one of the best analogies regarding the need to halt the ever-present and accelerating climate change issue. It was a quote by John Holdren, Professor of Environment Policy at Harvard, who was selected as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, and Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Here is what he said...

"The current situation of the world in relation to the climate problem is that we're in a car with bad brakes driving toward a cliff in the fog, and the fog is the scientific uncertainty about the details that prevent us from knowing exactly where the cliff is. The climate change sceptics are telling us that the fog is a consolation and that we shouldn't worry because we're uncertain about the details, but of course any sane person driving a car toward a cliff in the fog and knowing that the brakes are bad, that it takes the car a long time to stop, will start putting on the brakes, trying to slow the car, without knowing exactly where the cliff is but just in the hope that by putting on the brakes we'll be in time to keep from going over the cliff. You don't have to be sure that you can still avoid going over the cliff to put on the brakes, you want to do it in any case. And that's what the world should be doing with respect to the emissions of greenhouse gases that are causing this climate problem. There's a chance we'll go over the cliff anyway but prudence requires that we try to stop the car."

GREAT analogy, in that it addresses the nay-sayers, as well as reinforces the need for action. It is great to finally see someone associated with the White House that has an obvious passion, but more importantly, the brains to deal with the impending issue that is climate change. Having said that however, from an academic point of view, I worry about the degree of influence that climate change appears to have in the scientific literature. For that, I will need to write another post, because there are a number of elements I wish to discuss, so will need to think about it first...